Donald Trump’s election victory is a huge setback to the fight against climate change. He has made it very clear that he has no interest in reducing carbon emissions or making any meaningful contribution to enlightened environmental policies.

Four years of a Trump presidency will also strengthen the far right, both in the US and across the world.

Previous Trump administration

In 2017 when Trump last became president, he lost little time in withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement, claiming it would harm US industry and its workforce. The US stopped funding the IPCC (a token move, given its small budget), and maintained a hostility to all international initiatives to combat climate change.

Domestically, the previous Trump administration targeted the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), dramatically reducing its federal funding. It also cancelled a wide range of rules protecting the environment.

It is certain that the new administration will repeat these policies, but with the benefit of lessons learnt last time. This will accelerate environmental degradation domestically, slow down the move away from coal, and boost the burning of natural gas.

A central aspect of Trump’s politics is the promotion of US industry. His opposition to progressive climate policies gives him huge support from the US oil and gas industries. For workers in these industries, Trump represents protection against job insecurity. But his stated intention of large tariff increases runs the real danger of raising prices and rising inflation.

Fossil fuel lobby

A Trump presidency will embolden the fossil fuel lobby in the US and across the world, and give cover to other countries which are unwilling to restrict oil, gas and coal.

The Paris Agreement (or Paris Climate Accords) is the framework for international cooperation on mitigation of greenhouse gases, adaptation to global warming, and international climate finance. It is a very weak agreement, and targets are regularly missed. But it is virtually the only international mechanism to restrain the burning and exporting of fossil fuels. Without the US, the annual COP meetings will be even less effective. The result will be a quicker slide towards global climate catastrophe.