The defeat of Jair Bolsonaro by Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) in the Brazilian presidential election is a huge win for the environment and for democracy.
The main focus of the election for climate activists has been the fate of the Amazon rain forest. A Bolsonaro victory would have lead to ever increasing deforestation, which has implications for the whole planet.
Bolsonaro’s campaign was funded by agribusiness. The illegal ranchers and farmers who have been decimating the forest are his most ardent political supporters. He was never going to tackle deforestation seriously.
Under his presidency, the destruction of the Amazon has been increasing steadily, with vast areas of tropical rain forest being burnt for agriculture, mainly cattle ranching.
Although Bolsonaro made public commitments to curtail illegal deforestation, in practice he allowed to agricultural sector to operate in the Amazon. This has included the invasion of indigenous lands.
Since Bolsonaro took office in 2019, the average rate of deforestation has increased by 75%. On the international stage, he threatened to take Brazil out of the Paris Accord, copying the destructive actions of Donald Trump.
Lula’s past record president?
Lula was president for two terms – 2003 to 2006 and 2007 to 2010. His government made huge improvements to housing and public health. Millions of people were lifted out of extreme poverty.
The social reforms were financed by a long economic boom, based on Brazil’s commodity exports during the time when the world commodity prices were high.
Under Lula, from 2004 and 2010, the rate of deforestation in the Amazon was reduced by over 75%. https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/bolsonaro-what-four-years-of-non-existent-climate-action-has-done-to-brazil
Although his government pushed through some major dam projects in the face of environmental concerns, it enacted progressive environmental legislation.
Because of the income from the international boom in raw material prices, these reforms could be carried out without a significant increase in taxation. The government continued with the old tax system which favored the very rich rather than the middle class and poor.
Lula’s election promises on the climate
The most important measures that Lula has announced is a pledge to work towards zero deforestation, and combating environmental crimes. This includes the protection of indigenous people against illegal mining or logging.
Brazil is the 7th largest emitter of greenhouse gases. So measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are important for climate change globally.
Up to 25% of emissions Brazil’s emissions are from the burning of forests and other areas. So emissions will definitely decrease if the PT’s deforestation pledges are honored. But the country will still be the 7th largest emitter even if these emissions were to be eliminated tomorrow.
Because much of Brazil’s energy comes from hydroelectricity, the energy sector contributes less than 7% of all emissions. Agriculture is by far the largest emitter (36%), and must therefore be the main target if Brazil is to live up to its Paris Accord commitments.
As scientists are pointing out, even the Paris Accord commitments are not nearly enough to keep the average temperature rise to 1.5%.
The government plans to use carbon markets as a tool to drive down emissions. As many climate activists are aware, carbon markets have proven to be an ineffective tool for climate policies, and they allow big emitters to continue with their practices.
Brazil is also a major exporter of oil (10th in the world in 2021) https://www.worldstopexports.com/worlds-top-oil-exports-country/. These exports have been rising rapidly. At present, fossil fuel exports are not included in the Paris Accord targets, but clearly exporters bear major responsibility for emissions from their exports. Unfortunately, Lula plans to increase oil drilling and refining further in the name of “energy security”.
Lula’s other election promises
Lula has not presented detailed plans for the PT’s social and economic program. He is promising increased welfare benefits, infrastructure development and improved rights for workers.
To pay for increased government spending, he is proposing a modest tax reform, with higher taxes on the wealthy. Although unemployment has been falling steadily, Brazil remains one of the most unequal societies in the world. Lifting the millions of the very poor out of poverty will require a continuing expansion of the economy. With the cautious economic program and the global economic situation, such an expansion is unlikely.
Prospects for the environment and the climate
There can be little doubt that the new PT government will bring down the rate of deforestation. This won’t be an easy task. The ranch owners behind the destruction of forests are experts at using the law expand their ranches into virgin land. The ranchers and the wider business lobby, with support from the Bolsonaro supporting Senate, will use all their powers to slow down the new government policies.
The prospects for keeping to Brazil’s international climate commitments are bleak. Its short term NDC (nationally determined contributions) goal is to reduce 37% of its greenhouse gases by 2025.
Significant emission reductions will depend on government action on agriculture. The government would have to enforce wide ranging changes to agricultural practices. There can be no doubt that any such changes will be strongly resisted by agribusiness, big farm owners and their political backers.
Brazil’s cattle ranching and oil exports
Real progress will only be made if cattle farming is sharply reduced. This would mean a direct confrontation with the agribusiness corporations and ranch owners. It would only be politically possible if the government could get the support of agricultural workers. Acceptable alternative employment would have to be made available, and those unable to get new work would have to get unemployment and pension benefits on terms at least as good as they receive at present.
Although agricultural employment has decreased from 16% of the working population in 2000 to about 9% today, the costs of providing this level of protection would be high.
There no reason to hope that the new government will consider the wide ranging agricultural changes that would get it anywhere close to its NDC target. So while the new government will slow down the disastrous deforestation of the Amazon, its contributions to the global warming catastrophe will continue.
Lula’s promise to promote the drilling and refining of oil is also worrying. Most of the oil will be exported, and will not be counted as part of Brazil’s NDCs. A comprehensive and responsible policy on climate change would include the immediate scaling down of the oil industry.